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Sales Prediction & Supply Chain Performance

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The key to consumer products industry success

#Smart operations

Sales prediction, either for sell-in or sell-out, is one of today’s main challenges for most companies in the consumer products industry. As you would expect, it is a keystone to most divisions of a company. Several key business areas are indeed directly impacted by sales forecasting, namely stock management, marketing choices arbitrage or product portfolio management, among others.

However, the complexity of the distribution channel of consumer product companies and the multiplicity of drivers either on the consumers’ or on the retailers’ side makes it difficult to accurately predict sales. Moreover, existing models, which are mostly built on historical data forecasting only, are not suited to handle today’s challenges anymore. New phenomena such as Social Media or Global Shoppers effects are in fact exacerbating the lack of accuracy of existing forecasting models.

All this generates an important lack of reliability of existing prediction models resulting in considerable investments of both time and money.

Comprehensive, accurate and reliable sales Machine Learning models

#Smart operations

To overcome those limitations we, at Artefact, design end-to-end sales prediction Machine Learning models, integrating all dynamics to ensure forecast accuracy. We firmly believe that reliable models flow from a strong comprehensiveness in term of data sources. Leveraging our AI expertise, we are able to structure and use new data that no existing prediction engine can handle today. As an example, our demand sensing models include all drivers from traditional ones such as media exposition, trade plans, promotions and calendar events to more advanced ones like Social Media, Global Shoppers and International trade effects.

Using our knowledge of big data infrastructures and tooling, we are also able to automate data ingestion and data structuration and thus build fully self-adapting and self-learning models. Thanks to all this, we are able to significantly improve accuracy and reliability to our client’s sales predictions.

 

User Experience & Insights

#Smart operations

Besides an accurate prediction, Artefact models also provide key insights into the impact of the different dimensions on final sales. As an example, it provides information on the most impactful drivers when forecasting sales, on the relative impact of brand’s initiatives or even on the importance of unpredictable effects such as Social Media. These learnings can then be used as key information in further decision making throughout all business units.

Building customized and personalized interactive platforms for model visualisation, drill-down, and data input modifications, we are able to fully embed models’ outputs into existing processes.

At Artefact, we build highly comprehensive and reliable sales prediction models able to adapt themselves to unpredictable effects of the market and industry specificities.
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Guillaume Digoin

Senior Data Scientist

Reach out to our experts in the Data Science team with any questions you have or to request a meeting.

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